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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out FC Seoul 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat FC Seoul 1-0 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.83 xG and FC Seoul 0.76 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against FC Seoul attack 0.76 / defence 0.76, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 34% | Draw 35% | FC Seoul 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 47% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, FC Seoul 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG, FC Seoul 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights