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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pohang Steelers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Pohang Steelers 1-3 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.43 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.13 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Daejeon Citizen attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 43% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 29%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 46%, Daejeon Citizen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.46 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights