Jeonbuk Motors 3-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 2 sees Ulsan Hyundai FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jeonbuk Motors 2.10 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 53% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 47% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.52 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.302 / defence 0.979 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.995 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 1.264. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Jeonbuk Motors games / 33 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.52 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.302 / def 0.979 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.995 / def 1.241 | league avg home 0.938 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 3 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 44% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.30) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
44%
2.28
25%
3.96
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.75
1.23
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
7%
14.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.23 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 34 games, going 19W 10D 5L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.97 PPG from 34 outings (19W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.97 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 11W 3D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.71 points per game from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 19W 10D 5L in their last 34 games (1.97 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 19W 10D 5L in their last 34 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 2.12 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 53%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 65% (Ulsan Hyundai FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's matches and 65% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-2 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Championship Round - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.52 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.30 / defence 0.98 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.24, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 47%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.97 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.