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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Suwon City FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon City FC 3-2 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.63 xG and Suwon City FC 0.76 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.28 / defence 0.91 against Suwon City FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 58% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 17%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 45%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights