Jeonbuk Motors 3-2 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jeonbuk Motors (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jeonbuk Motors face Seongnam FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Seongnam FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022, 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this season.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seongnam FC away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Jeonbuk Motors have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Seongnam FC have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 4–0 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jeonbuk Motors and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 51% versus Seongnam FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Seongnam FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.16 xG and Seongnam FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.876 / defence 1.063 | Seongnam FC attack 0.877 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.168. Data: 54 Jeonbuk Motors games / 54 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 37% | Draw 30% | Seongnam FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Seongnam FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Seongnam FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 37% | Draw 30% | Seongnam FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.16 / Seongnam FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.876 / def 1.063 | Seongnam FC attack 0.877 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Seongnam FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 3 - 2 Seongnam FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 37% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC?
Record (4 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 3W | Draws 1 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Seongnam FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (0.88) and Seongnam FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.31
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.25
1.09
Seongnam FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.09 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 59 games, going 33W 16D 10L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Seongnam FC sit at 0.95 PPG from 59 outings (13W 17D 29L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 15W 8D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Seongnam FC have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (5W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.85 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Seongnam FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 33W 16D 10L in their last 59 games (1.95 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 13W 17D 29L in their last 59 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Seongnam FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.83 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
0
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, Seongnam FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2022, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Seongnam FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 45% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Seongnam FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 45% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 45% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Seongnam FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Seongnam FC 3-2 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.16 xG and Seongnam FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Seongnam FC outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Seongnam FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 37% | Draw 30% | Seongnam FC 33%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 41%, Seongnam FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.