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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-3 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Championship Group - 34, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.76 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.07 / defence 0.74 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 55% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 20%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.65 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights