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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.58 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.14 / defence 0.74 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 51% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 24%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 57%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.67 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights