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Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.31 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 39% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 60%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Jeonbuk Motors winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights