Jeonbuk Motors 0-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pohang Steelers make the trip to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to face Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
Pohang Steelers have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Jeonbuk Motors. A 1.80 PPG lead over Pohang Steelers (2.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Pohang Steelers half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 53% versus Pohang Steelers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 47% | Pohang Steelers 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.106 / defence 0.860 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.312 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 0.954 / away 1.027. Pohang Steelers have an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Jeonbuk Motors games / 35 Pohang Steelers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 34%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Pohang Steelers 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Pohang Steelers 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Mar 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 / Pohang Steelers 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.106 / def 0.860 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.312 / def 1.185 | league avg home 0.954 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Pohang Steelers xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers?
Jeonbuk Motors 0 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 38% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Pohang Steelers in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.11) and Pohang Steelers's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pohang Steelers's attack (1.31x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.63
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.41
1.16
Pohang Steelers xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.16 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 38 games, going 22W 10D 6L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Pohang Steelers sit at 1.21 PPG from 38 outings (12W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 12W 3D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Pohang Steelers have taken 1.28 points per game from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.08 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 2.17 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Jeonbuk Motors have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jeonbuk Motors
4
Draws
2
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, Pohang Steelers have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Pohang Steelers?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 56%, Pohang Steelers 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 33% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pohang Steelers in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Pohang Steelers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 50% of Pohang Steelers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 33% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Jeonbuk Motors 0-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.16 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jeonbuk Motors fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.11 / defence 0.86 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.31 / defence 1.19, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 38% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 34%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 47%, Pohang Steelers 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Pohang Steelers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.