Jeonbuk Motors 0-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 43%, yet in-form Jeonbuk Motors provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Jeju United FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 May 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 8W 1D 1L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Jeonbuk Motors are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 53% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 47% | Jeju United FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 0.92 xG and Jeju United FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.839 / defence 0.935 | Jeju United FC attack 1.174 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.102. Data: 47 Jeonbuk Motors games / 47 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 28% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Jeju United FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeonbuk Motors (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 28% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 0.92 / Jeju United FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.839 / def 0.935 | Jeju United FC attack 1.174 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Jeju United FC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 0 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 28% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (0.84) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
28%
3.57
29%
3.42
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.13
1.21
Jeju United FC xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.21 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 22W 10D 6L from 38 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 10L across 38 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jeju United FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 13W 3D 3L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 5W 9D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 61%.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 2.21 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeonbuk Motors
4
Draws
3
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Jeju United FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 53%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 47% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 37%; Jeju United FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 47% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jeonbuk Motors.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 0-2 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 0.92 xG and Jeju United FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Jeju United FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 28% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 43%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 47%, Jeju United FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Jeju United FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.