Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Jeju United FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 May 2021, 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.16 xG and Jeju United FC 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.398 / defence 0.985 | Jeju United FC attack 0.804 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 0.923 / away 1.000. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 1.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Jeonbuk Motors games / 12 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 43% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Jeju United FC 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 43% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.16 / Jeju United FC 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.398 / def 0.985 | Jeju United FC attack 0.804 / def 0.902 | league avg home 0.923 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Jeju United FC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 2 May 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 43% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.40) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
43%
2.30
33%
3.07
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
1.96
0.79
Jeju United FC xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.79 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeonbuk Motors
4
Draws
3
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Jeju United FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC finished level at 1-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.16 xG and Jeju United FC 0.79 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.40 / defence 0.98 against Jeju United FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.90, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 43% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 24%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.