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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.24 xG and Jeju United FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Jeju United FC attack 0.69 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 25%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 45%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights