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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.44 xG and Gwangju FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gwangju FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Gwangju FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 26% | Gwangju FC 30%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 45%, Gwangju FC 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights