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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out FC Seoul 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat FC Seoul 2-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Championship Group - 38, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.70 xG and FC Seoul 0.99 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.06 / defence 0.79 against FC Seoul attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 53% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 21%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 55%, FC Seoul 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (75 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Seoul's trading profile (75 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.63 PPG, FC Seoul 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights