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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Daejeon Citizen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Daejeon Citizen 3-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Championship Group - 36, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.54 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.01 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.07 / defence 0.76 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 49% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 24%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.62 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights