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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Daejeon Citizen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Daejeon Citizen 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 2.04 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.18 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeonbuk Motors fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.20 / defence 0.84 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.13 / defence 1.17, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 57% | Draw 21% | Daejeon Citizen 22%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 58%, Daejeon Citizen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.65 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights