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Dominant Jeonbuk Motors run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Daegu FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Daegu FC 3-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 2.45 xG and Daegu FC 1.03 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.27 / defence 0.91 against Daegu FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.51, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 68% | Draw 17% | Daegu FC 14%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Daegu FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Daegu FC's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights