Jeju United FC 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 35% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 10:30 UK time.

Current Form

Jeju United FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Jeju United FC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head sample leans to Ulsan Hyundai FC, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Jeju United FC 1–0 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a Jeju United FC win.

Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 47% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 45% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jeju United FC surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.18 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.854 / defence 0.977 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.046 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.267. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 36 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 30% | Draw 35% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.34 | Draw 2.87 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.84. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Jeju United FC's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Jeju United FC 36 games, Ulsan Hyundai FC 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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