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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Jeju United FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.94 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.21 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.78, drawn from 45/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 32% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights