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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC beat Jeju United FC 3-4 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.54 xG and Suwon City FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Suwon City FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.28, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 34%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights