🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Jeju United FC edge out Suwon City FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeju United FC beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.41 xG and Suwon City FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.21 against Suwon City FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 43% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 29%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, Suwon City FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights