Jeju United FC 3-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Jeju United FC welcome Suwon City FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon City FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jeju United FC at 0.40 PPG versus Suwon City FC's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jeju United FC, 0 for Suwon City FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 5–0 with Jeju United FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jeju United FC trading profile (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 60% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 59% | Suwon City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.77 xG and Suwon City FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.910 / defence 1.084 | Suwon City FC attack 1.030 / defence 1.468. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.138. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.468 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Jeju United FC games / 58 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 3.85. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 70% | Suwon City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Jeju United FC 1.77 / Suwon City FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.910 / def 1.084 | Suwon City FC attack 1.030 / def 1.468 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Suwon City FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC 3 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 48% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Jeju United FC 1W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 0W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.85
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.27
Suwon City FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
4%
22.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.27 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 22W 17D 24L from 63 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 30L across 63 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.32 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 8W 12D 10L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 6W 7D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 22W 17D 24L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 19W 14D 30L in their last 63 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.20 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 63%, Suwon City FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jeju United FC) and 53% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jeju United FC's games and 50% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jeju United FC's matches and 53% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jeju United FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Suwon City FC 3-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.77 xG and Suwon City FC 1.27 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Suwon City FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.47, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 26%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 59%, Suwon City FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.32 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.