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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pohang Steelers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeju United FC beat Pohang Steelers 2-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.48 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.50 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pohang Steelers landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.09 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.25 / defence 1.20, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 38%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, Pohang Steelers 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights