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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Jeju United FC and Jeonbuk Motors drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.06 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.68 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.23 / defence 0.78, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 24% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 52%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, Jeonbuk Motors 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights