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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeju United FC beat FC Seoul 3-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.80 xG and FC Seoul 0.97 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Seoul outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against FC Seoul attack 0.85 / defence 0.69, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 28% | Draw 35% | FC Seoul 37%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 45%, FC Seoul 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Seoul's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.25 PPG, FC Seoul 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights