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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Anyang beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Relegation Group - 36, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.34 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Anyang outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against FC Anyang attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 29% | FC Anyang 29%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC Anyang win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, FC Anyang 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

FC Anyang's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.00 PPG, FC Anyang 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights