Jeju United FC 0-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Daegu FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Daegu FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Jeju United FC, 1.10 for Daegu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Daegu FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jeju United FC 64% and Daegu FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 46% | Daegu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.27 xG and Daegu FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.985 / defence 1.393 | Daegu FC attack 0.762 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.156. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Jeju United FC games / 29 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Daegu FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 90% | Daegu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Jeju United FC 1.27 / Daegu FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.985 / def 1.393 | Daegu FC attack 0.762 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Daegu FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 06:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Jeju United FC 0 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 37% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.76x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
37%
2.68
27%
3.67
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.23
Daegu FC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.23 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 7W 14D 7L from 28 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 9L across 28 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.54 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 4W 5D 4L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.21 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 7W 14D 7L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 12W 7D 9L in their last 28 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Daegu FC's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.31 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for Jeju United FC, 46% for Daegu FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Jeju United FC) and 46% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 31%; Daegu FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Jeju United FC's games and 46% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 46% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeju United FC 0-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.27 xG and Daegu FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.39 against Daegu FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.29, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 35%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, Daegu FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.25 PPG, Daegu FC 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.