Incheon United 0-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to Sungui Arena Park to face Incheon United in K League 1, Championship Round - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Incheon United against 1.60 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 48% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.12 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.905 / defence 0.737 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.240. Incheon United's defence rating of 0.737 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Incheon United games / 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 43% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Incheon United are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Incheon United 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 43% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Incheon United 1.12 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.905 / def 0.737 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.882 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Incheon United 0 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 43% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.91) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.88x) against Incheon United's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.22
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.92
0.81
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
9%
11.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.81 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 24W 24D 23L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 40W 20D 11L from 71 games, 1.97 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Incheon United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.46 PPG from 35 outings (13W 12D 10L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 16W 11D 8L from 35 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Incheon United are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.58 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 24W 24D 23L in their last 71 games (1.35 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 40W 20D 11L in their last 71 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.46 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 37%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Incheon United) and 51% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%; Incheon United have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Incheon United's recent matches and 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 51% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 49% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ulsan Hyundai FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Incheon United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Incheon United 0-3 at Sungui Arena Park, Championship Round - 1, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.12 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.81 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Incheon United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.91 / defence 0.74 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 43% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 26%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.