Incheon United 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to Sungui Arena Park to face Incheon United in K League 1, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 06:00 UTC.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 0.80 PPG clear of Incheon United in recent K League 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 45% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.77 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.830 / defence 0.823 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.142 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.033. Data: 39 Incheon United games / 39 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Incheon United's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 20% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Incheon United 0.77 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.830 / def 0.823 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.142 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Incheon United 1 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 28% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.83) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.14x) against Incheon United's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
28%
3.59
33%
3.00
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.74
0.97
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 17.0 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.97 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 12W 11D 15L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 21W 11D 6L from 38 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Incheon United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 8W 6D 5L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Incheon United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.42 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 32%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Incheon United) and 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37%; Incheon United have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Incheon United's recent matches and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 7, as Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.77 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.97 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.83 / defence 0.82 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.81, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 28% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.