Incheon United 0-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Incheon United welcome Suwon City FC to Sungui Arena Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon City FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Incheon United at 1.90 PPG versus Suwon City FC's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Incheon United 57% and Suwon City FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 62% | Suwon City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.16 xG and Suwon City FC 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.920 / defence 1.032 | Suwon City FC attack 1.178 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 0.931 / away 1.229. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Incheon United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Incheon United games / 22 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Suwon City FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 50% | Suwon City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Incheon United 1.16 / Suwon City FC 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.920 / def 1.032 | Suwon City FC attack 1.178 / def 1.358 | league avg home 0.931 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Suwon City FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Incheon United 0 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC part of?
Incheon United vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 28% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Incheon United and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Suwon City FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 0.92x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.58
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.66
1.50
Suwon City FC xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
6%
15.71
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.50 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Incheon United come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 5D 8L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.38 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Incheon United's home form reads 4W 4D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Incheon United are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 67%.
Last 21 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Suwon City FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.60 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Incheon United and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Suwon City FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jul 2024, when Suwon City FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Incheon United
5
Draws
4
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 1, Suwon City FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2024, when Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 50%, Suwon City FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Incheon United) and 60% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 40% of games; Suwon City FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Incheon United's games and 60% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Incheon United's recent games and 60% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Incheon United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 23, as Incheon United and Suwon City FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.16 xG and Suwon City FC 1.50 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Incheon United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Suwon City FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.36, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 28% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 44%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 62%, Suwon City FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.38 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.