Incheon United 4-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Incheon United take on Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Incheon United welcome Suwon City FC to Sungui Arena Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 March 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.10 xG and Suwon City FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.911 / defence 1.166 | Suwon City FC attack 0.701 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 0.870 / away 1.013. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Incheon United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Incheon United games / 4 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 38% | Draw 38% | Suwon City FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | Suwon City FC 4.17. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Mar 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 38% | Draw 38% | Suwon City FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Incheon United 1.10 / Suwon City FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.911 / def 1.166 | Suwon City FC attack 0.701 / def 1.391 | league avg home 0.870 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Suwon City FC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 17 March 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Incheon United 4 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC part of?
Incheon United vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 38% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 24% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Incheon United and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Suwon City FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 0.91x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.63
38%
2.61
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.93
0.83
Suwon City FC xG
2.63
38%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.83 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Incheon United and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Suwon City FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jul 2024, when Suwon City FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Incheon United
5
Draws
4
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 1, Suwon City FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2024, when Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Incheon United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Suwon City FC 4-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.10 xG and Suwon City FC 0.83 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against Suwon City FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.39, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 38% | Draw 38% | Suwon City FC 24%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.