Incheon United 0-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sungui Arena Park plays host to Incheon United versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Incheon United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Incheon United are significantly better at Sungui Arena Park than their overall form suggests.
Suwon Bluewings (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Incheon United's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Incheon United 1W, Suwon Bluewings 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2021, ended 2–1 with Incheon United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Incheon United half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 47% versus Suwon Bluewings 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 50% | Suwon Bluewings 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.93 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.810 / defence 0.971 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.775 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 0.944 / away 1.132. Suwon Bluewings bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Incheon United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Incheon United games / 31 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 35% | Draw 33% | Suwon Bluewings 31%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Suwon Bluewings 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Suwon Bluewings's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Incheon United at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 40% | Suwon Bluewings 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 35% | Draw 33% | Suwon Bluewings 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Incheon United 0.93 / Suwon Bluewings 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.810 / def 0.971 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.775 / def 1.210 | league avg home 0.944 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Suwon Bluewings xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Incheon United 0 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 35% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (2 meetings): Incheon United 1W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 0W.
What form are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings in?
Incheon United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 0.81x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.78x) against Incheon United's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
35%
2.82
33%
3.02
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.78
0.85
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 14.4 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.85 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Incheon United come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 7D 13L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Suwon Bluewings sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Incheon United against 1.20 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Incheon United's home form reads 5W 5D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon Bluewings have taken 1.36 points per game from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.23 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 30 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Incheon United's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.43 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
From 9 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Incheon United 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 36%, Suwon Bluewings 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Incheon United) and 50% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 43%; Incheon United have failed to score in 43% of games; Suwon Bluewings in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Incheon United's recent matches and 36% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Incheon United's recent games and 50% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Incheon United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Incheon United 0-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.93 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.85 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Incheon United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.81 / defence 0.97 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.78 / defence 1.21, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 35% | Draw 33% | Suwon Bluewings 31%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 50%, Suwon Bluewings 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.23 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.