Incheon United 1-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Seoul at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs FC Seoul encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Incheon United host FC Seoul at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Incheon United — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Sungui Arena Park, Incheon United have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Seoul — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Incheon United in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Seoul in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 45% versus FC Seoul 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | FC Seoul 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.83 xG and FC Seoul 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.946 / defence 0.835 | FC Seoul attack 1.167 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.016 / away 1.119. Data: 34 Incheon United games / 34 FC Seoul games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 31% | FC Seoul 41%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | FC Seoul 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 20% | FC Seoul 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 31% | FC Seoul 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Incheon United 0.83 / FC Seoul 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.946 / def 0.835 | FC Seoul attack 1.167 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.016 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.09
FC Seoul xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs FC Seoul kick off?
Incheon United vs FC Seoul kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs FC Seoul?
Incheon United 1 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Incheon United vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs FC Seoul part of?
Incheon United vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 28% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Incheon United and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and FC Seoul in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Incheon United's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
28%
3.62
31%
3.20
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.93
1.09
FC Seoul xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 15.9 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Incheon United and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.09 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Incheon United's recent record stands at 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five.
FC Seoul, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 15L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.24 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Incheon United have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Seoul's away record stands at 7W 5D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Incheon United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or FC Seoul away?
Incheon United's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.42 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Seoul go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Incheon United's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Incheon United
3
Draws
5
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 2, FC Seoul have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-0 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 32%, FC Seoul 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Incheon United and 37% for FC Seoul.
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 47% of games; FC Seoul in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play FC Seoul?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Incheon United's recent matches and 58% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 37% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Incheon United and FC Seoul share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United and FC Seoul finished level at 1-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.83 xG and FC Seoul 1.09 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against FC Seoul attack 1.17 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 28% | Draw 31% | FC Seoul 41%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, FC Seoul 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
FC Seoul's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.24 PPG, FC Seoul 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.