Incheon United 1-2 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Incheon United host Daejeon Citizen at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Daejeon Citizen — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Daejeon Citizen away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Daejeon Citizen's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Incheon United's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Incheon United: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Daejeon Citizen, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Incheon United and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Incheon United trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Daejeon Citizen trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 47% versus Daejeon Citizen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Daejeon Citizen 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.13 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.693 / defence 1.109 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.059 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Incheon United's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Incheon United games / 66 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 29% | Draw 26% | Daejeon Citizen 44%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Daejeon Citizen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Incheon United dominate the H2H record, yet Daejeon Citizen are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 50% | Daejeon Citizen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 29% | Draw 26% | Daejeon Citizen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Incheon United 1.13 / Daejeon Citizen 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.693 / def 1.109 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.059 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Daejeon Citizen xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Incheon United 1 - 2 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 29% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (6 meetings): Incheon United 4W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 0.69x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
29%
3.39
26%
3.83
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.58
1.45
Daejeon Citizen xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
7%
14.43
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.45 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Incheon United come into this having played 74 games, going 22W 26D 26L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Daejeon Citizen sit at 1.26 PPG from 74 outings (22W 27D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.24 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Incheon United's home form reads 10W 13D 14L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Daejeon Citizen have taken 1.00 points per game from 37 outings (7W 16D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Incheon United are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.28 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 74 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 22W 26D 26L in their last 74 games (1.24 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 22W 27D 25L in their last 74 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Incheon United's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.16 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Incheon United's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Incheon United
2
Draws
3
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen?
From 9 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 4, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 0-0 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 49%, Daejeon Citizen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Incheon United) and 51% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 32% of games; Daejeon Citizen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Incheon United's games and 68% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Incheon United's recent games and 51% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out Incheon United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Incheon United 1-2 at Sungui Arena Park, Relegation Round - 4, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.13 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.69 / defence 1.11 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 29% | Draw 26% | Daejeon Citizen 44%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Daejeon Citizen 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.24 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.