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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gwangju FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Relegation Group - 37, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.49 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 43% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.28 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights