Gwangju FC 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gwangju FC face Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gwangju Football Stadium plays host to Gwangju FC versus Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1 (matchday 28). Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Gwangju FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Gwangju FC edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Jul 2024, ended Gwangju FC 1–0 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a Gwangju FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 43% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 38% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.33 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.916 / defence 1.037 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.907 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.136. Data: built from Gwangju FC's last 60 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 60.
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 43% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.34 | Draw 3.66 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gwangju FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 43% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Gwangju FC 1.33 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.916 / def 1.037 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.907 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC FAQs
What time does Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gwangju FC 0 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 43% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 0.92x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.91x) against Gwangju FC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Gwangju FC's last 60 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.66
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.40
1.07
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.07 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gwangju FC come into this having played 65 games, going 28W 12D 25L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.86 PPG from 65 outings (36W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.86 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gwangju FC's home form reads 16W 4D 12L across their last 32 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 32 away games (14W 6D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Gwangju FC (Home) vs Ulsan Hyundai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gwangju FC
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Form FAQs
What form are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 28W 12D 25L in their last 65 games (1.48 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 36W 13D 16L in their last 65 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won Ulsan Hyundai FC 5-1 Gwangju FC on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 2D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gwangju FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Gwangju FC 4-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 31%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Gwangju FC) and 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gwangju FC 0-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.33 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 43% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 38%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.48 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.