Gwangju FC 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gwangju Football Stadium plays host to Gwangju FC versus Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gwangju Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Gwangju FC 1W, Ulsan Hyundai FC 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Gwangju FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 34% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.53 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 1.107 / defence 1.163 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.067 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.302. Data: 44 Gwangju FC games / 44 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 35% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.5 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Gwangju FC 10% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 35% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Gwangju FC 1.53 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 1.107 / def 1.163 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.067 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gwangju FC 2 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 35% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gwangju FC 1W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 0W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 1.11x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.07x) against Gwangju FC's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.91
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.62
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
7%
14.25
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.62 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gwangju FC come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 11D 11L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 38 outings (23W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Gwangju FC's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.74 points per game from 19 outings (10W 3D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.66 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 23W 7D 8L in their last 38 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.63 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 5-1 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 16% (Gwangju FC) and 47% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Gwangju FC) and 53% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37%; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 47% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 16% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.53 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.62 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 35% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 39%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 26%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.55. Form was overturned, with Gwangju FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.