Gwangju FC 0-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gwangju Football Stadium plays host to Gwangju FC versus Seongnam FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 1 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Seongnam FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seongnam FC away from home this season: 1W 5D 2L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Gwangju FC, 0.60 for Seongnam FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Gwangju FC 0W, Seongnam FC 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2021, ended 0–2 with Seongnam FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Seongnam FC — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 50% versus Seongnam FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 39% | Seongnam FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.23 xG and Seongnam FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 1.076 / defence 1.094 | Seongnam FC attack 0.789 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 0.930 / away 1.402. Seongnam FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Gwangju FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Gwangju FC games / 18 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 35% | Draw 31% | Seongnam FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Seongnam FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gwangju FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gwangju FC 40% | Seongnam FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 35% | Draw 31% | Seongnam FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Gwangju FC 1.23 / Seongnam FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 1.076 / def 1.094 | Seongnam FC attack 0.789 / def 1.225 | league avg home 0.930 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Seongnam FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC?
Gwangju FC 0 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 35% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gwangju FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gwangju FC 0W | Draws 0 | Seongnam FC 1W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Seongnam FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Seongnam FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Seongnam FC's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.79x) against Gwangju FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 20/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
35%
2.87
31%
3.22
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.21
Seongnam FC xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.21 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gwangju FC come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 3D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Seongnam FC sit at 1.00 PPG from 18 outings (4W 6D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.00 for Seongnam FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gwangju FC's home form reads 3W 2D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Seongnam FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (1W 5D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 18 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Blended
Seongnam FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Seongnam FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.38 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gwangju FC
1
Draws
2
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Seongnam FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 1, Seongnam FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2021, when Seongnam FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Seongnam FC?
Seongnam FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 50%, Seongnam FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gwangju FC) and 50% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Seongnam FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 50% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 50% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gwangju FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Gwangju FC and Seongnam FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.23 xG and Seongnam FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gwangju FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Seongnam FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against Seongnam FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.23, drawn from 20/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 35% | Draw 31% | Seongnam FC 34%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 39%, Seongnam FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.00 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.