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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Gwangju FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Gwangju FC 1-2 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 0.81 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.63 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.31 / defence 0.70, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 18% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 56%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 44%, Jeonbuk Motors 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.30 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights