🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Gwangju FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Gwangju FC 0-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 0.85 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.05 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.11 / defence 0.71, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 29% | Draw 32% | Jeonbuk Motors 39%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 36%, Jeonbuk Motors 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights