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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gwangju FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jeju United FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC beat Jeju United FC 2-0 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Relegation Group - 35, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.45 xG and Jeju United FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jeju United FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Jeju United FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 44% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 28%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 43%, Jeju United FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (72 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (72 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.28 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights