Gwangju FC 2-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gwangju FC host Gangwon FC at Gwangju Football Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gwangju FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gwangju FC at Gwangju Football Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gwangju FC at 1.40 PPG versus Gangwon FC's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Gwangju FC trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Gangwon FC trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 48% versus Gangwon FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 42% | Gangwon FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.39 xG and Gangwon FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 1.025 / defence 1.155 | Gangwon FC attack 0.689 / defence 1.443. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.264. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.443 — this is suppressing Gwangju FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Gwangju FC games / 33 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 46% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Gangwon FC 3.70. Gwangju FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gwangju FC 60% | Gangwon FC 50%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 46% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Gwangju FC 1.39 / Gangwon FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 1.025 / def 1.155 | Gangwon FC attack 0.689 / def 1.443 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gangwon FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Gwangju FC 2 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 46% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.69
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.40
1.01
Gangwon FC xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
7%
14.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.01 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 9W 6D 18L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 9W 10D 14L from 33 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.00 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 3D 10L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.06 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 33 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 9W 6D 18L in their last 33 games (1.00 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.19 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
6
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 2, Gangwon FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gwangju FC 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 44%, Gangwon FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Gwangju FC) and 44% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Gangwon FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 56% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 44% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gwangju Football Stadium, Relegation Round - 1, as Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.39 xG and Gangwon FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Gangwon FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.44, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 46% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 27%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 42%, Gangwon FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.00 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.