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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Seoul cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gwangju FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Seoul beat Gwangju FC 1-3 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 0.66 xG and FC Seoul 0.70 xG, a combined 1.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Seoul outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against FC Seoul attack 0.70 / defence 0.66, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 29% | Draw 40% | FC Seoul 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Seoul win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 40% and landed. Over 3.5 was 5% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 36%, FC Seoul 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG, FC Seoul 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights