🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Gwangju FC edge out FC Anyang 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC beat FC Anyang 1-0 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Relegation Group - 34, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.25 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Anyang landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against FC Anyang attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 39% | Draw 30% | FC Anyang 31%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 42%, FC Anyang 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Anyang's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.27 PPG, FC Anyang 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. FC Anyang (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights