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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gwangju FC edge out FC Anyang 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC beat FC Anyang 2-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.16 xG and FC Anyang 0.94 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gwangju FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against FC Anyang attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 41% | Draw 30% | FC Anyang 29%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights