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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 2-2 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.12 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.44 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gwangju FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.19 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 28% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 43%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 36%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights