🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daegu FC beat Gwangju FC 2-3 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.71 xG and Daegu FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Daegu FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.37, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 49% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 26%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 44%, Daegu FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Daegu FC's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.29 PPG, Daegu FC 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights