Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
45%
2.23
35%
2.86
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.27
0.89
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Gwangju FCDrawBucheon FC 1995
2.23
45%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
5%
19.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.388
λ Away (xG)
0.885
Total xG
2.273
League avg home goals
1.219
League avg away goals
1.001
Gwangju FC attack strength
1.075
Gwangju FC defence strength
1.044
Bucheon FC 1995 attack strength
0.847
Bucheon FC 1995 defence strength
1.059
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
39 / 6