Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Gimcheon Sangmu FC take on Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Gimcheon Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ulsan Hyundai FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.71 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.864 / defence 0.772 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.919 / defence 0.682. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.074. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence strength of 0.682 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 44 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.47. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.47 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 18% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 27% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.71 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.864 / def 0.772 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.919 / def 0.682 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
27%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 30% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.36
37%
2.69
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
1.47
0.76
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.70
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.0 | 17.6 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.6%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.76 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 1.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 18W 9D 11L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 21W 9D 8L from 38 games, 1.89 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.66 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 6D 6L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ulsan Hyundai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.63 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 9D 8L in their last 38 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ulsan Hyundai FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 32% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 32% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.71 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.76 xG, a combined 1.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.77 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.68, drawn from 42/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.