🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Jeju United FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Gimcheon Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jeju United FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jeju United FC — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Jeju United FC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% versus Jeju United FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% | Jeju United FC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.839 / defence 0.748 | Jeju United FC attack 0.899 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.264. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 56 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Jeju United FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Gimcheon Sangmu FC dominate the H2H record, yet Jeju United FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeju United FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | Jeju United FC 70%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights